BREAKING NEWS: CHAVEZ IN CRITICAL CONDITION

There are strong indications that the health of President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has become critical as of Wednesday night.

According to reports received by The Americas Report from reliable sources, Chavez is currently in grave medical condition.  Reports point to kidney failure. Under conditions of cancer illness kidney failure is irreversible.

According to sources Chavez’s deteriorating condition is the result of complications derived from treatments received in Cuba. He was transferred from the military hospital to a private hospital due to the need for better medical equipment to deal with Chavez’ delicate condition.

Dramatic events are expected to happen. Chavez’ upcoming death may have major serious strategic and political consequences. Chavez has launched a socialist revolution with populist- authoritarian and even some totalitarian features.  The power of the central government has greatly increased to the point of reducing the power of the states. The Military was purged of officers considered to be disloyal while other officers were promoted and rewarded with luxury in exchange for their loyalty to Chavez.  The Judiciary and the legislative powers became instruments of executive power and were forced to keep their loyalty. Written laws and constitutional guarantees were replaced by Chavez’ stubborn dictates.

Such revolution has had international implications as it is being replicated in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua with strong financial, political and ideological support from Caracas.

Chavez also provided a lifeline to Cuba by becoming its main benefactor since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Since 1999 Venezuela has provided aid to Havana of more than 18 billion dollars in subsidies for oil and payment for professional services (which include health, technological, military, and other services).  Services provided by Cubans allegedly include troops on the ground, intelligence, advice on asymmetric war, youth training, mobilization, and a security apparatus aimed at protecting Chavez regime.

Chavez has also deepened relations with insurgent groups such as the Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and international terrorist groups such as the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and the Spanish -Basque ETA. Chavez also opened Venezuelan ports and airports to drug cartels and established a tacit alliance with them.

Chavez also increased relations with Iran, with whom he shares hostility towards the United States. The cooperation between Iran and Venezuela is taking place on multiple levels including repressive tactics, military philosophy and nuclear cooperation.

Chavez tried to expand his influence on the continent by supporting candidates for President that support his own Bolivarian revolution. The Chavez formula aims at perpetuating pro-Chavez elected presidents in power, and once they are in power they follow the same foreign policy strategically aimed at counteracting U.S policy and interests.

Most of the countries allied with Hugo Chavez have moved quickly towards authoritarianism, expelled Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) operatives and moved quickly to increase ties with Iran.

Under the Bush and the Obama Administration no major strategy has been developed to counteract the malign effects of Chavez and his revolution.

Chavez’ almost certain passing portends a moment of uncertainty and it is not clear how the Administration will seize it. Presidential elections in Venezuela are scheduled to take place next year. Even though the opposition seeks to unite around one candidate, it has always been widely suspected that Chavez may gain reelection by using the state machinery and the Venezuelan oil company (PDVSA) to buy votes. Others believe that Chavez could find ways to win by committing fraud in elections. In the past elected officials non-loyal to Chavez were undermined and their offices taken over by the government, the Mayor of Caracas being a vivid example.

Perhaps as a first step the U.S and the Organization of American States (OAS) could demand free and fair elections. It is not clear how Chavez prepared his succession and whether the military will resist change. It is not clear what kind of effect militias, Cuban troops and Special Forces, as well as other foreign elements including terrorist and guerilla groups, may have in such resistance.

It remains to be seen how involved the U.S is willing to be. However, this crisis will require a lot of thoughtful and courageous decisions.

Support for real democracy in Venezuela is very important. Given its tradition it is more likely for democracy to succeed there. Contrary to the Arab world where the uncertainty of the transition has raised questions regarding its future, in Venezuela Chavez’ departure gives hope that democracy be successfully restored. Chavez’ passing could also be a serious blow to Iran’s presence on the continent as well as the terrorist groups he supported. Likewise, it could weaken authoritarian projects in Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua.  I would add that even Cuba could well move faster towards reform.

Geo-political stability in the Western Hemisphere and U.S national security is at stake. Doing nothing is not an alternative.